By Dumitru Popescu, ArcaSpace President, https://www.dumitrupopescu.com/
The moment of the Russian MIRVed IRBM strike recorded by the surveillance cameras from Dnipro city
On November 21st, 2024 the Russian Federation attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM).
In 2019 the US The United States has officially withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, an agreement reached by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1987, which prohibited the development and deployment of IRBMs.This opened the gate for Russia to restart the development IRBMs, and this week we’ve witnessed the use of such a weapon against Ukraine.
Accordingly to the DOD Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, the new IRBM is “based on the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM model”. She also stated that the US was briefly informed about the incoming attack.
President Vladimir Putin confirmed yesterday the use of a new IRBM against Ukraine and mentioned that the new missile is called Oreshnik. He also mentioned that in the future, before the use of this type of weapons, the adversary will be informed in advance in order to limit the casualties. Mr. Putin also mentioned that the enemy will be informed because nothing developed by the US can intercept the new Russian missile: “There are no means to counter such weapons today. The missile strike targets at speeds of Mach 10, or 2.5–3 km/s. The modern air defense systems available worldwide and the US developed missile defense system in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. This is impossible.”
Based on the images captured by Ukrainian cameras, apparently the new IRBM is Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) capable, as it deployed a large number of hypersonic Reentry Vehicles (RVs).
Although the missile is nuclear capable, the strike on Ukraine was non-nuclear and apparently it didn’t even use conventional explosives, as the RVs just hit the target kinetically. By doing so Russia responded to the Ukrainian attack deep in its territory using the US and UK made ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, a red line they said are not allowing Ukraine to cross. By launching an IRBM against Ukraine, Russia escalated further, at a level never seen before, as this was for the first time in history when this type of extremely dangerous weapon was used in actual combat.
As ArcaSpace is currently developing the A1 strategic anti ballistic and hypersonic missile interceptor, being one of the handful of entities in the world which develops such a system, we must admit that Mr. Putin is right.There are no interception means available to NATO to counter such missiles which are primarily designed to strike European targets. This is the exact statement I’ve made publicly this year, with various occasions.
But why isn’t NATO able to intercept such missiles?
There are three main reasons:
- The extremely high speed of the Reentry Vehicles (RVs) that are deployed by the missile, making them difficult to track and destroy. The defense system needs to track the target, and the interceptor needs to intersect its path to kinetically hit or detonate into the target’s proximity, a target that is half a meter in diameter, less than 2m in length, and it flies with 12.000–24.000km/h at interception altitudes. It’s challenging to say the least.
- The extremely high number of RVs that are heading to the target which easily overwhelm any defenses;
- The prohibitive cost that can reach even $100 million for a single interceptor.
The A1 anti ballistic interceptor during tests
The A1 interceptor addresses all of the above issues, as it is designed to protect high value assets, by deploying a dome, or a high density dome sector, consisting of 6–10 tons of pellets at altitudes between 200–2.000m, in the path of the incoming RVs. The RV’s are destroyed or diverted through kinetic impact. The interceptor has the capability to engage incoming MIRVs carrying ground and air detonation warheads, both conventional and nuclear. Differently to the current anti ballistic missiles which can engage a single RV, the A1 can engage multiple RV’s, without the danger of being overwhelmed, because we let the target come to the interceptor and not the way around. Furthermore, when every other defense system fails due to target’s speed, the A1 uses the extremely high RV’s speed to its advantage. So, when everyone else is saying that the ICBM’s and hypersonic missile’s main defense is their high speed, we are saying that the ICBM’s and hypersonic missile’s high speed is their worst enemy. The cost of one A1 interceptor is $699,900.
Artist impression of A1A launch to protect the defended areas
The images with the yesterday’s strike on a populated area are terrifying.Those who don’t know in detail what a MIRV represent, and why it is the most dangerous weapon ever developed by mankind, are maybe not able to fully understand what those images represent. By working directly on the development of an anti ballistic interceptor, I was personally terrorized by what I saw.
I’ve raised my concerns represented by the looming danger of MIRVs during our meetings with the NATO officials, at least three times since March this year. “There’s an extremely low probability of MIRV attacks”, they assured me. Well, it seems NATO was dead wrong and I was right. The lack of strategic thinking and capacity of correct evaluation of the modern battlefield realities shook me to the bone.
Going back to Mr. Putin’s statement regarding NATO’s incapacity to defend against MIRV, yes, again he was right. With one exception, the A1 technology is here to defend against MIRV’s and it is the only available realistic option Europe currently has.
Water rockets coming to save the day!